ICMR-funded study: India to see Covid-19 peak by mid-Nov

coronavirus pandemic| ICMR

With the eight-week lockdown and improved public health initiatives, the onset of India’s latest coronavirus pandemic has been postponed. According to a report, it might now arrive in the middle of November.

The study indicates that India may not have adequate beds and fans for insulation and intensive care during this time.

The study by the Indian Council of Medical Research’s (ICMR) operational research group has found that national lockdown imposed in March has moved the pandemic period to an average of 34 to 76 days. Nevertheless, its official stance is not expressed in the report.

It also contributes to a 69-97% lowering of the number of COVID-19 infections, allowing authorities time to consolidate resources and infrastructure.

The demand can be met until the first week of November in the scenario of increased public health measures 60% after lockdown with effectiveness. Subsequently, the forecast by health researchers found that insulation beds could be unsatisfactory for 5.4 months, ICU beds for 4.6, and ventilators for 3.9 months.

This deficit, though, is projected to be 83% greater than it was without public safety interventions and lockdown.

The consequences of unmet need can be minimized by continuous policy measures to improve services and various disease levels in different areas. The analysts have shown that if awareness of public health initiatives will rise to 80%, it will reduce the pandemic.

According to the model-based study in India for COVID-19, the number of cases at the highest will be reduced by 70% and the total cases could be the reduction by almost 27%, with an additional capacity built up for monitoring, treating and isolating patients during the lockdown period.

The study indicates that nearly 60% of the deaths from COVID-19 were avoided and a third of this mortality reduction is the product of the intervention in reducing the unmet demand for critical treatment.

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